Following the tragic images and facts emerging from the Ukraine, I have written up a brief analysis on what we know about atrocities committed by Russian military forces in Ukraine, and whether they constitute genocide, for JustSecurity.org.
At the time of writing, we have clear evidence of serious atrocity crimes being perpetrated in Ukraine, as well as a visible escalation of genocidal rhetoric by state-backed media and officials in Russia. At the moment, we don't have clear enough evidence on the link between these two - i.e. that violence on the ground in Ukraine is being guided by specifically genocidal motives - to confidently conclude that genocide, in its legal sense, is occurring. However, more evidence is coming out all the time, and the risk of an intensification of atrocities, and potentially escalation to outright genocide, is high.
You can find the full article here: www.justsecurity.org/80998/is-genocide-occurring-in-ukraine-an-expert-explainer-on-indicators-and-assessments/